MySpace Downturn Talk is PrematureMySpace.com has passed the 80 million mark if its member profile count is accurate. They currently list 80,689,975 profiles. Publishing 2.0 has a post asking if a MySpace downturn has begun. Publishing 2.0 also posts this Alexa graphic which shows a dip in MySpace traffic. However, this six month Alexa graphic from today (see below) shows more of a leveling off over the last couple months than a drop.
MySpace has lots of social networking rivals but their profile total keeps soaring. They are facing new competition from AOL's AIM Pages and a growing number of specialty social networking sites. MySpace countered AOL's launch of AIM Pages with their own IM tool but they can't defend against niche social networks. It is hard to tell whether this will have any affect on MySpace. It's possible people will even use multiple social networking sites. They might keep a MySpace, Bebo or Facebook as their main social network and then use a couple niche communities as well. When discussion boards were popular most people belonged to more than one. Some still do.
Ben Barren says he doesn't think "MySpace is retreating anytime soon, although their AU and non US localisation strategy is yet TBC." J.D. Amer writes, "In 5 years no one will talk about MySpace or Facebook unless they drastically change their focus."
Update: We are updating this because Publishing 2.0 points out that we have our apples and oranges confused and we most certainly do. The above graphic shows only the REACH from Alexa. Here is the graphic that shows Pageviews for the same time period.
Posted on May 26, 2006